četvrtak, 25. lipnja 2020.
DR. NELA SRŠEN 2
'Positive people are not necessarily contagious, that is to say, not to scare people with another wave'
'All those who are positive today do not necessarily have to be contagious to the environment, but it is a term that does not currently exist in Croatia'
Author: STANISLAV SOLDOPosted: June 24, 2020 8:38 pm
Dr. Nela SršenGallery
Dr. Nela Sršen
Denis Jerkovic / Cropix
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The situation with coronavirus in Italy and Croatia is not the same. Thanks to the good work of the Headquarters, there is a much smaller number of infected and dead people in Croatia - points out Dr. Nela Sršen , who after six months of continuous work at the University Hospital in Padua and fighting the virus managed to catch time and come to Metković to visit her mother, writes Slobodna Dalmatia .
- I cared about her the most. It's hard when you can't come and hug your mother - says the doctor, on whom the three-month crown-crisis has left a deep mark. He is angry with the Croats because they are nonchalant. Masks are not worn, social distance is not respected, and everyone is talking about the second wave and counting new positives.
- When I appeared in Zagreb with a mask, everyone was looking at me in amazement. Some probably thought I was crazy or infected - says Dr. Sršen.
Maybe you don't need a vaccine
She herself was often in a situation of direct contact with the coronavirus in the operating room of the University Hospital in Padua, where she works as a surgeon, which is why she ended up in a two-week isolation, writes Slobodna Dalmacija .
- The moment the "lockdown" is over does not mean that the virus has disappeared. There are still small hotspots. But the situation is no longer the same as in February. If we have positive patients, there is no need for them to go to resuscitation anymore. The virus has definitely weakened and its viral charge is not what it used to be. It changes over time, but not because it has mutated. There are fourteen minor mutations that would cover the vaccine. This new virus has a shell that does not mutate. And that’s exactly the difference compared to the flu vaccine. A new vaccine has to be made every year because the flu virus changes, and with the corona this is not the case. In the end, the question remains whether a coronavirus vaccine is necessary at all - our interlocutor believes.
image
Dr. Nela Sršen
Denis Jerkovic / Cropix
She says that the Headquarters and the epidemiological service must change the testing parameters. I can’t behave like I did three months ago because the virus has obviously weakened.
- All those who are positive today do not necessarily have to be contagious to the environment, but this is a concept that does not currently exist in Croatia. When presenting data on new cases, for example, they say “we have three positives”. In our consciousness, an image is created of three patients who are infectious and can infect other people. As is well known, a high viral charge kills healthy cells very quickly, we have seen the consequences of this, thousands infected and dead in Italy. However, if the viral charge is low, it cannot infect host cells. Thus, the person is positive on testing and is no longer infectious. These are the so-called asymptomatic cases, of which there are more and more - Dr. Sršen points out.
According to her, during standard PCR testing today it is necessary to do several cycles of amplification to determine if there is any trace of the virus in the tested person, while at the beginning of the epidemic only one cycle was enough to show if the person was infected.
And he wants to survive
- That confirms to us that the virus is weakening. We need to distinguish between cases of high viremia, when a person is positive and highly contagious, and cases when a person has a low charge of the virus in him, without symptoms, let alone infects people in the environment - explains Dr. Sršen.
Is there an explanation for why the virus becomes milder?
- That is very difficult to explain. The virus is smart. He needs to survive and he needs a living being. So his goal is not to kill the host. The transmission of the virus from human to human carries traces of our genomes, so the virus becomes milder, that is, it adapts in the same way as similar viruses have adapted throughout history. I hope that this one will become a part of us because it has already entered our lives and over time manifests itself as a common cold.
image
Dr. Nela Sršen
Denis Jerkovic / Cropix
Are we expecting a second wave then, how realistic is it?
- If in that second wave we mean a severe economic crisis and a difficult mental state of people, then the answer is yes - the second wave will come. Just because we sometimes have more positive people doesn’t mean a second wave is coming to us. The reason is that the “lockdown” is over and people are moving more. But all epidemiological measures should be respected. In Italy, the fine for not wearing a mask is 400 euros. In Croatia, no one wears a mask and social distance is not respected, everyone hugs and kisses. And everyone is talking about the second wave, and epidemiological measures are not being respected, I am shocked. This situation left a mark on me. In the Veneto region, where I live, there were two thousand positive and 800 dead people a day. That is why I am even more shocked by the behavior of people in Croatia, as if nothing had happened. It is not in Croatia, but it is in Italy and that is why we need to be careful.
More suicides
‘When the coronavirus charge is known to be low, people could return to daily activities. In Italy, many entrepreneurs have failed due to the crisis caused by the corona, shops and restaurants are closing, and as a result we have an increased number of suicides. More than in 2008 when there was an economic crisis. '
Against fear
'Croatia has done a great job: from the very beginning, epidemiologists have acted responsibly and sought contacts, but now there is no need for that. There is no need to fuel fear among people in order to bring back something that already existed. People are constantly kept in fear of a long wave. That's not good. We need to establish a normal life and be careful. '
The number of copies is important
‘It is not enough to say that someone is positive. It is necessary to determine how many copies the virus has in the calling patient, on which its charge of spread depends. If there are 100,000 copies, then it is highly contagious (as it was at the beginning of the pandemic), but if there are 35,000 copies, the possibility of spreading the infection is small or non-existent, so the virus is non-infectious. '
Far from drama
‘We are far from the dramatic situation that happened three or four months ago, which needs to be told to people, to avoid alarms and unnecessary fears. The virus is there, but for unknown reasons there are far fewer viruses in newer swabs than before. The viral charge in the new positive cases is extremely low and cannot infect the host cell, unlike the onset of a pandemic when the virus killed healthy cells in a matter of hours.
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