petak, 28. kolovoza 2020.
CROATIA COMMENT
Hrvoje Prnjak: Our economy has shaken like never before, but that could be good news for the Government. The Minister of Finance knows best why
HRVOJE PRNJAK WRITES
August 28, 2020 - 3:50 p.m.
Minister Marić and Prime Minister Plenković
Minister Marić and Prime Minister Plenković
Bruno Konjević / HANZA MEDIA
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The absurdity with election promises is that, as a rule, they are seldom or only partially realized due to - the first next campaign. Well, I guess you won't go into reforms and cuts before the elections. It is not very wise to resent the voters, to "unnecessarily" reject some who would otherwise give you their vote ... I guess there are other forms of luxury that politicians can afford.
After all, there are always some elections on the political horizon anyway. Here, in May next year, we will all go to the local elections.
Despite this, the latest bad economic news - especially the one about the drastic fall in GDP in the second quarter of as much as 15.1% - can also be seen as good news. Although it is the fifth worst result in the EU - after Spain, France, Italy and Portugal.
How can this send good news now? Especially if we know that the Central Bureau of Statistics also announced that household consumption decreased by 14 percent in the second quarter and that investments fell by 14.7 percent. Imports of goods and services fell 28.1 percent. Exports of goods fell by 10.6 percent in the same period, and exports of services shook the most - by as much as 67.4 percent. Nigger to nigger ... We haven't had such bad statistics since the war days!
By what magic can all this become good news ?! Well, it can! Croatia's worst quarterly GDP in the last 25 years, as measured by national accounts statistics, means that the government does not need any excuses to implement reforms and cuts, even the most painful ones. Those with whom we would otherwise, let's be honest, probably calculate this time as well, at least here and there, for pragmatic reasons of satisfying the electoral base.
But cheap vote buying could cost the state finances too much this time around. As the Minister of Finance Zdravko Marić himself pointed out, we have a drop in GDP that far exceeds the shocking 9 percent since then during the last great crisis ...
And that is why it will be necessary to shake up expenditures well, among other things. Maybe just to the taste of the finance minister. All this could mean that public administration reforms will be accelerated, which is often mentioned as an acute burden of any executive power, but also of a more efficient functioning of the economy.
"We are facing challenges," Maric himself admitted to reporters today. "Yes, it's easy, it's not easy," the minister said.
When asked by journalists about the urgency of cuts, especially in public administration, Maric raised his hand:
"I would not draw such an unambiguous conclusion. Everything concerning public administration is not the only structural reform. It is not just a question of number. employer, and these people have their families. We need rationalization and greater efficiency. "
Of course, this is an ideal opportunity for politicization, exaggeration and subsequent brainstorming of all kinds - today, after the announcement of the fall in GDP, we heard one from Vesna Vučemilović from Škorina's Homeland Movement, according to which Government measures, ie support, did not give any results - but it is clear that all users of the state budget will have to adapt to new circumstances, that nothing more, as you have heard so many times in recent months, "will not be the same". But in this case, literally. Because, Marić will certainly not suggest that the solution be - printing money ...
True, the data for the third quarter will be more favorable due to such a tourist season, which will have a positive effect on the annual balance sheets, ie the movement of GDP on an annual basis. But here is an opportunity for the Government to show its reform character and speed up with someone reforms-cuts that the public has long called for. The opposition also ...
Minister, how's the old one ... Hic Rhodus, hic salta!
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