"RUSSIA IS A KEY PLAYER IN NAGORNO-KARABAKH"

STRENGTHENING RELATIONSHIPS Caucasus expert on conflict escalation: "Russia is key player in Nagorno-Karabakh" As Turkey adds fuel to the fire, the key to the solution is in Moscow's hands Writes: Jutarnji.hrPosted: October 3, 2020 12:58 pm 8922973 Narek Aleksanyan / AFP Facebook Twitter Messenger E-mail A solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is unthinkable without Moscow, Caucasus expert Stefan Meister told Deutsche Welle . DW: After smoldering for decades, the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh escalated into heavy fighting between the Armenian and Azerbaijani armies. Are you surprised? Stefan Meister : - I am a little surprised by the intensity of the escalation, but not by the fact that the situation has escalated. The military conflict has been in preparation for weeks, and the rhetoric has been sharpened, especially on the Azerbaijani side. In the previous weeks, some kind of mobilization and preparations for a new war were carried out, and in the end, sharp tones came from the Armenian side as well. It was clear that something would happen in the foreseeable future. In 1993, the United Nations recognized Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan. Turkey sees itself as the protector of Azerbaijan and has promised military support. Is Ankara on the "right" side? - According to international law, of course, Azerbaijan is right. Nagorno-Karabakh and seven other areas annexed by the Armenians are state territories of Azerbaijan. Armenia, on the other hand, insists on the right to self-determination of the people and points out that Nagorno-Karabakh is predominantly inhabited by Armenians. The Azerbaijani government, meanwhile, is particularly frustrated, as all the negotiations in recent years, from their point of view, have yielded nothing. In that sense, Turkey is really on the "right side", because it supports the principles of international law. But what I see now is that Ankara, with its rhetoric and delivery of weapons to Baku, is adding more fuel to the fire than contributing to a peaceful solution. One interview regarding this conflict can hardly be conducted without mentioning the role of Russia. How do you assess the role of Moscow? - Russia is a decisive player. Moscow sees itself in the role of "honest mediator" and is considered neutral. But neutrality goes so far that Moscow, for example, supplies weapons to both sides. On the other hand, Russia has a military base in Armenia and is therefore a protector of that country. the situation will not calm down and achieve a ceasefire without the consent of Moscow.But Turkey is also in a very strong position at the moment and it will be very interesting how Moscow will react to that. RELATED NEWS --- WAR IN THE CAUCASUS Turkey has told the superpowers not to meddle in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict KREMLIN WARNING Moscow claims that illegal groups from Syria and Libya are also taking part in the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan What do you think? - Official statements from Moscow say that Ankara should refrain from adding fuel to the fire. And to emphasize what they said, there have already been, among other things, talks with President Erdogan. I cannot imagine that Turkey wants to enter into open conflict with Russia. In other words: Turkey will give in at some point, and Russia will eventually try to get a ceasefire between the warring parties again. Given that emotions have reached a boiling point, in both Armenia and Azerbaijan, it will not be an easy endeavor. Attempts by the European Union, Armenia and Azerbaijan to push for a peace solution have been concentrated since the 1990s around the so-called Minsk groups. It brings together 13 countries under the auspices of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). What other opportunities do Europeans have in this conflict? - On the one hand, France represents Europeans in this format. On the other hand, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has already telephoned both Armenian Prime Minister Nikola Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev . So there is at least an attempt by the EU to communicate at the diplomatic level. But the EU does not play a key role in the region and therefore has little pressure. Baku simply no longer believes that the Minsk format will lead to any progress. Is there a clear line on the European side? - Rhetorically, the EU is on the side of Baku, does not recognize Nagorno-Karabakh and pleads for the integrity of the state of Azerbaijan. At the same time, the right to self-determination of the people is constantly discussed and thus tries to present itself as a neutral actor who wants to mediate between the two sides. However, I wonder how important this conflict is to Europeans in general, and whether they have not been satisfied with the status quo in recent years. The European Union has been restrained in this conflict with enormous potential for conflict. It is the same with the United States, which, together with Russia and France, chairs the Minsk Group. That gave Turkey room to enter this vacuum. But in the end, more or less Russia was left to this conflict and its resolution. Stefan Meister is a German political scientist with a focus on the history of Eastern Europe. He was director of the Robert Bosch Center for Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia. Since 2019, he has been the director of the Heinrich Böll Foundation's Office for the South Caucasus Region, Deutsche Welle writes .