THE BATLE FOR THE WHIT HOUSE

THE BATTLE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE Can Trump ‘steal’ victory? Here are 8 potential election scenarios in the US Due to the covida-19 pandemic, 80 million Americans are expected to vote by mail By: Tea Trubić MacanPosted: October 9, 2020 5:06 pm Donald Trump and Joe Biden Donald Trump and Joe Biden Saul Loeb / AFP Facebook Twitter Messenger E-mail Four years ago, President-elect Donald Trump descended the escalator of his Fifth Avenue tower around 2.30am local time to celebrate the victory in Wisconsin with an enthusiastic crowd, which brought him the 270 electoral votes needed for the White House. However, this year we could wait a little longer for the winner. More optimistic analysts announce that these are days, while more pessimistic ones mention weeks. Due to the circumstances in which the US presidential elections are taking place this year, we could wait for the official result until the end of November. This year, due to the covida-19 pandemic, 80 million Americans are expected to be able to vote by mail to avoid going to the polls unnecessarily. The lack of volunteers at the polls is one of the biggest challenges this year because the job was otherwise done by retirees who are no longer willing to be unnecessarily exposed to the virus that has claimed more than 210,000 American lives. Namely, according to epidemiologists, each employee at the polling stations comes into contact with about 700 citizens during the election day, which is why many volunteers concluded that their engagement during the world pandemic would be playing Russian roulette. Maryland announced back in July that they lacked at least 14,000 volunteers, and Georgia lacked up to ten thousand. Numerous states announced a call for volunteers in early September, which they tried to find among public officials and politically engaged teenagers, and New Jersey went a step further by hiring 120 National Guard soldiers for Election Day. Financial injection The ballots should be delivered in a timely manner by the federal post office, which found itself in serious financial trouble even before the coronavirus pandemic and the state’s economic collapse. The debt of the size of the GDP of one Hungary was the reason for tightening the operating costs of the state-owned company, which led to delays in delivery in 48 of the 50 federal states. The US president has blocked an additional financial injection from the federal treasury to prevent possible delays, and he is also known as a big opponent of the correspondence method of voting, despite the fact that he has been using it for years. Until 2020, only the states of the American West allowed their citizens to vote by mail without a valid reason, but this year other states also changed their criteria, citing the pandemic as a universal justification for all registered voters. RELATED NEWS Kamala Harris and Donald Trump 'CHOSEN' WORDS Trump sharply attacked Kamala Harris: 'Everything she says is a lie, she's a monster!' REFUSED TO PARTICIPATE The next presidential debate will be virtual, Trump: 'I won't waste time on it, I'm not contagious' However, most of these countries have so far had a very limited encounter with the processing of letterheads, which could lead to complications and thus delays during the sudden increase. Polling stations The processing of the ballots is further complicated by the fact that each of the received envelopes contains the signature of the voter who needs to be entered into the database in order to check its validity. Also, most states did not allow the opening and processing of ballots before polls closed. Polls close first on the East Coast of the U.S., at 7 p.m., local time, and leading media around 8 p.m., based on exit polls, declare an unofficial winner in states where the difference is large enough not to make a statistical error. At that point, it will be possible to predict which candidate won more votes at the national level, the so-called a popular vote, which does not elect the country's president under the US Constitution. It could very easily happen, just as was the case in 2016 and 2000, that a person who fails to win the keys to the White House is in the lead all evening. Democratic candidate Joe Biden confirmed that he would accept the election result, but noted that he would do so only after all the ballots were processed, which in 2016, when only a quarter of Americans used correspondence voting, lasted a full month. Trump has already announced that in the event of defeat, he plans to put the issue of election legitimacy on the Supreme Court table where, if Amy Coney Barrett is not appointed by Nov. 3, only eight judges are currently sitting: five conservative and three liberal. The Supreme Court also ruled on the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore lost Florida, and thus the election, by only a few hundred votes. 8 POTENTIAL SCENARIOS In case of a tie, the President is elected by the House of Representatives Although many Americans after the 2016 fiasco forever decided to cross out election polls as a relevant indicator of the country’s political trends, most media still cite them as an announcement of the November 3 earthquake. Polls this year give Biden a very stable and fairly non-negligible advantage over incumbent President Donald Trump, but there are currently eight election night scenarios, according to which Biden and Trump still have a 50-50 percent chance of winning. The current favorite is melting advantage in key swing states, which in most of them is currently entering a statistical error. Recall, polls in 2016 in the federal states erred by a record 5.5 percent, which affected the ratio of voters. 1. The result of today's polls is achieved In that scenario, Biden won 353 electoral votes, and Trump 185 Minnesota with 10 voters and Florida with 29 belonged to Biden, but Trump won Texas with 38 voters. But this scenario is not overly realistic because it does not predict the statistical error, which turned out to be crucial for past cycles. 2. Election night gives Trump an advantage In that scenario, Trump gets 404 voters at least temporarily, and Biden 134. The scenario is very possible because ballots are processed faster than correspondence, and Republicans are statistically more likely to vote in person. In that case, the final result should be awaited. 3. The "silent majority" strikes back The 2016 scenario is repeated, and Trump manages to keep all the states and conquers Minnesota, Nevada and New Hampshire. In that case, Trump would get 325 voters and Biden 213. The scenario is not overly likely because Trump is 10 percent behind in three states. 4. Repeats 2016 Trump repeats the success of 2016 and wins 305 electoral votes, while Biden owns 233. Wisconsin with 10 voters, who voted for Republicans for the first time in 32 years in 2016, is red again, as are Pennsylvania, Iowa and Michigan. Depending on the turnout, the scenario is theoretically possible. 5. Thin Biden's victory Biden manages to resurrect Obama's popularity in the so-called Rusty belt and gain the trust of Hispanics in Arizona and Florida. In that scenario, he would get 273 electoral votes, while Trump would blow his neck with 265 voters. Depending on the turnout, a scenario is possible. 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