petak, 2. listopada 2020.
RACE WITH TIME
What if the situation with Trump gets complicated? It's a month until the election, here are all the scenarios
The law clearly defines who takes office, the situation is somewhat more complex when it comes to elections
By: Damjan RaknićPosted: October 2, 2020 12:28 pm
Donald Trump cardboard doll in the office of Trump's presidential campaign in Katy, Texas
Donald Trump cardboard doll in the office of Trump's presidential campaign in Katy, Texas
Mark Felix / AFP
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A tweet posted by US President Donald Trump on Friday, in which he stated that he and his wife Melania Trump are positive for coronavirus and that they are currently being quarantined to be treated for Covid-19, has fundamentally shaken US policy and the upcoming U.S. presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 3.
Tonight, @FLOTUS and I tested positive for COVID-19. We will begin our quarantine and recovery process immediately. We will get through this TOGETHER!
- Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 2, 2020
Although the 1947 U.S. Presidential Transfer of Rights and Obligations Act clearly defines who takes over the presidency in the event that Trump for some reason can no longer hold office, the situation is somewhat more complex when it comes to the upcoming presidential election.
The National Council of the Republican Party may reopen the voting process for the presidential and vice presidential candidate in the event that the nominated candidate, in this case incumbent President Trump, withdraws from the competition. In this case, the National Council may decide to promote the Vice-Presidential candidate or nominate a completely new person.
In that case, all 168 members of the National Council (three from each state and three representing Washington DC, American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands) would vote again for Trump's replacement, casting as many votes as the territory he represented surrendered at the national party convention. If the members of the National Council from a particular state or territory failed to agree on a candidate, then the number of votes belonging to their territory would be divided into three, each member would vote in his own way and his candidate would receive a third of the votes.
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Mandel Ngan / AFP
Such a scenario, still hypothetical at the moment, would set a precedent, as so far no presidential candidate of any party has died or withdrawn before the election. The last time something similar happened was in 1972, when Democratic Vice Presidential candidate Thomas Eagleton withdrew before the election.
In order to select a new candidate at an ad hoc convention, he must collect more than half of the votes belonging to each territory.
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The current situation of Trump and the Republican Party is further complicated by the 2016 case, when some Republicans openly debated whether to withdraw the presidential nomination that Trump then won. Namely, The Washington Post released a video from 2005 in early October 2016 in which one could hear Trump speak extremely vulgarly about women and his “seductive techniques” that involve grabbing women by the genitals and kissing women without question.
When the replacement of Trump was discussed in 2016, it was revealed that the Republican Party does not have a clear mechanism for removing candidates, but that it is only trained for situations in case a candidate dies or withdraws himself.
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Mandel Ngan / AFP
Rule 9 of the Republican Party Regulations, which was in force in 2016 and is still referred to by the Republican Party's official website, states that the National Council has the right to nominate a candidate for president and / or vice president in the event of his death circumstances. Experts say the rule cannot be used as a tool to remove candidates, while others say the rule could be interpreted in a variety of ways. In the event that a candidate is removed by a more liberal interpretation of Rule 9, then the vote we described earlier would be approached.
Historians state that Rule 9 was never used, and that the only exchange of candidates between the national convention and the election took place in the aforementioned 1972 in the case of the aforementioned Thomas Eagleton.
Rule 9 could theoretically be amended to make it easier to change candidates, however the process is time consuming. If the amendment were passed by the Standing Committee of the National Council of the Republican Party for Rules, it would then be put to a vote by the National Council and would take effect 30 days after it was voted by the National Council. Also, the National Council of the Republican Party may change the rules within two years of the conclusion of the national convention.
How could Pence become interim president
Like two U.S. presidents before him, Donald Trump could temporarily hand over power to his vice president if he proves incapable of performing office due to some medical procedure or treatment and recovery from the coronavirus, Reuters reported on Friday.
President Trump announced on Friday that he is positive for covid-19 and is going into quarantine to begin the recovery process immediately.
Under paragraph 3, the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution adopted in 1967 after the assassination of President John Kennedy in 1963, Trump could declare in writing that he was incapable of fulfilling his obligations.
Although Trump would remain in office, Vice President Mike Pence would become acting president. The president would regain all powers after stating in writing that he is capable of exercising them again.
The fourth paragraph of the 25th amendment offers the possibility to deprive the president of all powers if, for example, his cabinet considers that he has become incapable of performing presidential duties, but he has never been activated so far.
President Ronald Reagan decided on July 13, 1985, after a colonoscopy, to undergo surgery to have doctors remove the precancerous lesion. He signed the letter, not referring specifically to paragraph 3, that he was aware of its provisions. Vice President George W. Bush was acting president for nearly eight hours, from 11:28 a.m. to 7:22 p.m., when Reagan signed a letter stating that he was capable of taking office again.
On June 29, 2002, before the colonoscopy, President George W. Bush invoked Section 3 and temporarily handed over authority to Vice President Dick Cheney. Cheney was acting president from 7.09am to 9.24am.
Bush then invoked Section 3 again on July 21, 2007, before another colonoscopy, and Cheney was interim president from 7:16 a.m. to 9:21 p.m. (China)
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