četvrtak, 1. listopada 2020.
THE CONDITION IS SEVERAL
The French claim that jihadists come to the Caucasus en masse, and it is known who sent them there?
When it comes to negotiations, neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan are showing interest
By: Željko TrkanjecPosted: October 1, 2020 9:09 pm
Conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan
Conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan
Narek Aleksanyan / Afp
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The president of the unrecognized Republic of Nagorno Karabakh, Arajik Harutunjan, said that preparations should be made for war. "We should be ready for a protracted war. Otherwise we will have problems exercising the right to a peaceful life in our own homeland," he said in Stepanakert, the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh. He added that the tactics of the Nagorno Karabakh Defense Army are the implementation of peace, Interfax reports.
The clashes continued, and there is more and more information that confirms that fighters from Syria and Libya have arrived in the area of the conflict. Russia has been claiming this for some time, Turkey denies it, and precise information is difficult to obtain. Russia continues to call on "the leaders of the countries concerned to take effective measures to prevent the recruitment of terrorists and foreign mercenaries in this conflict and to withdraw them from the area immediately." And official Paris confirmed that information.
Stop the entry of terrorists
When it comes to negotiations, neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan are showing interest. In separate telephone conversations with Baku and Yerevan, Russian Minister Sergei Lavrov "confirmed Moscow's readiness to organize the necessary contacts, including a meeting of the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia." There is no answer. The same invitation was sent by the Russian and French presidents, Vladimir Putin and Emmanuel Macron . Silence.
Nicole Pashinyan , the Armenian prime minister, wrote on his Twitter that the international community has made it clear that the Turkish-Azerbaijani alliance is waging war against Armenia with the help of foreign, terrorist fighters. The fighting spilled over on the fifth day, AFP estimates the death toll at more than 130, and among them are numerous civilians. Although information is very scarce, according to the statements of both sides, it can be concluded that the fighting is very fierce, but that there are no major shifts on the battlefield.
Journalists of the French newspaper Le Monde found themselves under Azerbaijani fire in the city of Martuni in Nagorno Karabakh, the coordinator of the United Armenian Information Center, Ovanes Movsisyan, wrote on his Facebook page. According to him, two journalists were injured in the attack. Later in the day, news arrived that a Le Monde journalist was in critical condition and undergoing surgery.
The grenades ended up in Iran
It was also announced that three grenades ended up in Iran. As it is stated, one child was injured and six houses were damaged.
And why it is difficult to expect any change in the relationship between Baku and Yerevan, Admiral James Stavridis , a former NATO commander in Europe , wrote for Bloomberg .
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"While working in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, I visited both countries several times. Aversion and mistrust permeated the environment. The two defense chiefs hated each other at the time, and although both countries were NATO partners (and had small troop contingents) in Afghanistan), all the two of them wanted to talk about was the hypocrisy and dishonesty of the other side.Unfortunately, each of them precisely defined their country’s policy towards their neighbor in the Caucasus.Neither side seemed inclined to deviate even an inch , literally and figuratively. "
How tense the situation has been since the ceasefire in 1994, Admiral Stavridis described in the following sentence: "It is clear to you that the situation is extremely serious when Putin is a peace builder."
The conflict is not in Armenia
Emil Sanamyan , an analyst with the USC Institute for Armenian Studies, suggested that the trigger for such a conflict could be a new base built by the Armenian armed forces in a strategic position, to give Armenia a tactical advantage in the area. Azerbaijani forces tried to destroy it. Another analyst, Laurence Broers , who has been observing the conflict for years, believes Azerbaijan was motivated by thinking to test the security agreement Armenia has with Russia.
But on that plan, both sides found themselves in an unexpected position. The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which brings together Russia and some of the former Soviet republics (and Armenia), very quickly ruled out any possibility of dragging it into conflict. Namely, the CSTO announced that the question was whether it was an attack on a member state of the Agreement.
Namely, Azerbaijan attacked Nagorno Karabakh, which is an international legal part of Azerbaijan. And the fighting is taking place only in the area of that province. When it comes to Turkey, it will by no means find the support of NATO members.
Considering the possibility of resolving the conflict in such circumstances, Admiral Stavridis cited the book "The Black Garden" by Thomas de Waal . Stavridis states that it is an extraordinary overview of the causes of the conflict, and then quotes: "Any just solution to the Nagorno Karabakh dispute will require painful compromises on both sides and will have to balance radically opposite principles."
At this point, such compromises seem much less likely than a small war with potentially major consequences, Admiral James Stavridis concludes. The international circumstances are such that no power has time to deal with this conflict, and Russia has a problem: Baku does not want it as a mediator. But Moscow is prepared for such a scenario, aware, among other things, of the danger of the conflict spilling over into the wider Caucasus region. For example, Georgia, which could call on the United States and NATO for help and which could respond in the affirmative.
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