THEY COUNTED ALITTLE

Morning paper THEY COUNTED A LITTLE After Bakić's tweets, the American university reduced the estimate of deaths from corona in the Republic of Croatia 12 times Now forecasts say 122 to 126 dead by early November. Bakic is still cautious and says that the number seems low to him Author: Gojko DrljačaPosted: 08. July 2020. 08:05 Precautions in KBC Sestre milosrdnice Precautions in KBC Sestre milosrdnice Ranko Suvar / Cropix Facebook Twitter Messenger E-mail RELATED NEWS 7966347 CORONAVIRUS A Croatian entrepreneur unmasked a model that announced 1,500 dead in the Republic of Croatia, and received unexpected support THE INFECTION IS SPREADING Montenegro: An epidemic declared in 55 municipalities after the virus broke out After Croatian entrepreneur and mathematician Nenad Bakic tweeted the University of Washington to change its estimate of 1,500 to 17,000 deaths from COVID-19 infection by the end of September, the US institution has significantly reduced its projections. Now IHME University of Washington forecasts say 122 to 126 deaths by early November. Bakic is still cautious and says that the number seems low to him. Here is Bakic's post on Facebook: A small big win (against local fearmongers): IHME (University of Washington) corrected the model after my criticism. It now no longer predicts the most likely 1,500, and within the 95% probability even to the impossible 17,000 deaths from COVID-19 to October 1, but 122 (to 126). So let's repeat, instead of 1500 to 1.10., We are now talking about 122 to 1.11. As far as I can see, the important reason is the correction of the INPUT ('observed'), as I have mostly criticized. Unfortunately, such erroneous projections are welcome to some professional panic spreaders, and I think we should strive for truth, caution, and appropriate fear, rather than destructive panic and intimidation when based on untruths. How good? ps I by no means like to predict the number of deaths, but this number now seems very small. I’m not getting into that here, I was just criticizing the flaws in the previous model and the virtually impossible 1500, and indeed the impossible 17,000 to 1.10. It should be reminded that Nenad Bakić warned the University of Washington via Twitter, which recently shocked Croatia with the forecast that 1,500 people in Croatia will die from SARS-CoV-2 virus infection by the end of September. After Bakić argued in a series of tweets that something was wrong with the model and data of the University of Washington, he received on Twitter the completely unexpected support of the top expert in mathematical models and projections, the 2013 Jewish Nobel Prize winner Michael Levitt . -19 pandemics daily deals with analyzes and projections of the expected movement of the number of infected and dead. Levitt, who became famous for developing multiscale models for complex chemicals, was one of the great scientists who first began to warn that the policy of blind lockdowns does not make much sense and explained that we do not see exponential growth in the SARS-CoV-2 virus pandemic. , very precisely predicted a slowdown in the growth of the number of patients, followed by a slowdown and a decline in the number of infected.