GLOBAL ANALISES

By: Željko TrkanjecPosted: August 19, 2020 12:06 am Donald Trump Jim Watson / AFP Facebook Twitter Messenger E-mail RELATED NEWS Joe Biden WHO IS JOE BIDEN As a boy, he stuttered so much that he was ridiculed, and his life was marked by a family tragedy ELECTIONS IN THE USA Democrats formally nominate Biden as their presidential candidate: 'It's an honor to my life' Until the election for the American president, the entire House of Representatives and a third of the Senate have exactly 83 days left. And I can say with full certainty that the day after, on Wednesday, November 4, only one thing will be completely clear: we will not know who the new American president is. We may be able to glimpse the balance of power in the House of Representatives and the Senate - with a good chance the Democrats will keep the former, while the battle for the latter will be tied. It is not excluded that the year 2000 will be repeated, when the final winner was decided by the Supreme Court. Which had profound, negative consequences globally. The current global order can be defined as multipolar. The era of the Cold War and bipolarity is long gone, and the U.S. has done everything in its power since 2003 to be able to observe what the decline of monopolarity looks like. For the purposes of this article, I have made a currently valid ranking of global powers using three criteria: political influence, economic, and military power. According to these criteria, the modern world would have five great powers: the US, the EU, China, Russia and India. India is the most populous democracy. Functioning, with many problems, but which democracy does not have them? With a bad habit of killing their leaders, especially those of the Gandhi family. Incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi was elected in 2014 when he defeated the Gandhi Family Congress Party, and then repeated the victory last year when he literally swept the Congress Party. But his victory remained regional news, important to Pakistan, China, Russia, the United Kingdom; it did not provoke wider global reactions. And regardless of his strongly nationalist policies, his defeat in the 2024 elections would mean a peaceful transition of power. Which cannot be said for Vladimir Putin . The global public is closely following his every step, every sentence, and especially his decision to create the circumstances for extending his term after it expires in 2024: according to the results of the referendum, Putin could rule until 2036. The unknown must be included in the equation, which is of great concern to the global community: what if the current protests from Khabarovsk spill over to other parts of Russia? Russia's political chaos has been the West's greatest fear since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991: the country has the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons. image Gathering in South Dakota Michael Ciaglo / AFP The situation in China is somewhat, but not much, better. Xi Jinping came to power in 2012 to manage to bring all the levers of power under his control in the next five years: in 2018 he achieved the final goal, the policy of limiting the mandate to two consecutive ones is abolished. Xi could thus become a lifelong president, like Mao Zedong. Differentia specifica in relation to Russia is the existence of a more permanent framework of government, the Chinese Communist Party. Xi has a relevant number of opponents at the very top of the party. But for now, they are also suited to his "rejuvenated China" policy, which has shattered Hong Kong and openly threatened Taiwan. And that’s why the world is trying, divining from tea leaves, to find out what’s going on behind tightly closed party doors: we’ll all now be anxiously trying to find out from all available sources what the balance of power is after the usual summer meeting at Beidaiha’s seaside residence. Any earthquake in China would shake the world, but unlike Russia, the general consensus is that, even in the event of a revolt against Xi at some point, the Party remains a firm guarantor of stability. The EU is, realistically, just as undemocratic as Russia and China. Closer to China though. There are elections after which the European Parliament is formed in which we get some strong political groups - the people, the Socialists, the Liberals - but the final agreement on the leading positions takes place on the sidelines, as in the Forbidden City. If that were not the case, Manfred Weber would now be President of the Commission. And not Ursula von der Leyen . The President of the European Council is elected by the members of the Council, the Heads of State and Government. However, there is a huge difference, behind all these agreements are democratically elected governments, so it is a specific translation of the sovereignty of the peoples of the EU member states. That something happened to Jean-Claude Juncker, the former President of the Commission, there would be no earthquakes, unrest or anything. The Commission and the EU as a whole would continue to function normally. image Joe Biden Brendan Smialowski / AFP The American president is an icon of world democracy. The current one, unfortunately Donald Trump , is the 45th elected. There have been liquidations, in very sensitive times ( Abraham Lincoln ), but a system that rightly boasts a working mechanism of “checks and balances” and a powerful Congress has shown that democracy is indeed the best possible system we have ever succeeded in build: resilient, strong, flexible, powerful. And that is why the election of the new president of America is the key news of the year, the news after which strategies, behavior, trade plans, the thinking of other countries change. And this year we will definitely not know the name of the winner on November 4th. Does the orange Donald Trump stay in the White House or go there, but Joe Biden returns to the Oval Office. We will know the name of the winner only in one case, if either of the two candidates wins overwhelmingly. The Electoral College has 538 votes, and it takes 270 to win. Ronald Reagan won 525 in 1984. We can't expect anything like that this year, but we can expect demands for a new vote count, lawsuits, public appeasement and all. the worst you can imagine. Donald Trump imposed his campaign on the premise of a conspiracy to steal his victory. Joe Biden will not be allowed to allow himself to be narrowly defeated. Here is what Ian Bremmer , president of the reputable strategic thinking agency Eurasiagroup, said: “The November elections are increasingly likely to be unfree and unfair. If it were happening in another country, we would be looking for international observers. " There is currently absolute chaos in the US. This year's campaign is unique because it is taking place in the shadow of a pandemic that has hit this country particularly hard, so there will be no major pre-election rallies. And national party conventions will be chamber: Biden will not travel to the Wisconsin convention because of the coronavirus, which is likely to be held virtually. Trump said a speech at the Republican convention, to be held in Charlotte, North Carolina, could be given live from the White House. A heavy blow for him was the relocation of the convention from Florida where he did not get the approval of the health authorities to hold a public gathering. On August 5, Facebook removed a video in which Trump says children are "almost immune to Covid-19," arguing that it violated the company's rules against spreading misinformation about the coronavirus. On August 7, Trump claimed that his opponent in the US presidential election in November was Joe Biden "against God." The conclusion is clear: Trump is doing everything to attract public attention, starting from his old thesis - "I can kill someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue (in New York) and I will not lose votes." And that's right. image Donald Trump Jim Watson / AFP After all the riots that continued with the epidemic, his quarrels with journalists, doctors, the American economy fell by 32.9 percent, a series of books that describe him as he is - ignorant, conceited, narcissistic, racist, misogynist, and with all this convinced that knows all the best in the world - the latest poll conducted for Yahoo News by You Gov, released on July 30, confirms that Trump has the support of 40 percent of respondents despite 65 percent believing the country is not going in the right direction. According to that poll, Biden stands well, has a 9 percent advantage, but that is not enough because 8 percent of voters are still undecided. Trump is not calm, many of his outbursts are the result of polls he is passionately following. On Saturday, he signed four executive ordinances envisioning income tax cuts, extended unemployment benefits of $ 400 a week, protection for tenants threatened with eviction and a delay in collecting student loans. Negotiations between Democrats and Republicans to extend those measures have yielded no results. It is not ruled out that some Republicans have deliberately hampered negotiations to give Trump a chance to prove himself as the savior of those most in need, those hardest hit by the crisis. Yet even on Fox News, other Republican senators have come forward criticizing the decision. Because it bypasses the usual legislative procedure. But Republicans are still with Trump. They do not hesitate to criticize him, as when he said that the elections should be postponed, they are aware that they must preserve the fundamental values ​​of American democracy, which mean nothing to Trump. But they are not going against him, he is their candidate, with 40 percent support. In the United States, there is a dichotomy over party preferences that has become a fundamental cultural determinant of social affiliation, a direct consequence of the binary American political system. In it, two large parties suck into their ranks various political currents aware that this is sometimes not ideal for them - Tea Party, image Protest in New York Angela Weiss / AFP They shy away from it, but that’s exactly what created Trump as a political phenomenon. He claimed for himself to be the voice of the “silent majority,” which is not true, but it sounded good. Trump has become the personification of the dark object of desire of all racists, white supremacists, people from staunch patriarchal communities convinced of some “order” that must exist in the world. Mostly uneducated who often listen to (tele) evangelists who hate everything that has a hint of liberal or social democratic. They’ve voted before, many of them, but they’ve been spoiled, for them there wasn’t much difference between father Bush and Bill Clinton , or son Bush and Al Gore; none of them fully articulated their political desires, regressive and in many segments dangerous but existing. They first stepped forward as a whole in the 2008 election: John McCain gets the majority of votes only whites. And then in 2016, as opposed to the much-hated Hillary Clinton , Trump appeared as a flaw from heaven. And they don't give it. Trump's strength lies in the aforementioned electorate. After all he has said and done against blacks and women, according to the aforementioned poll, 36 percent of women, 13 percent of blacks and 29 percent of Hispanics will vote for him. Much clearer with the following figure: 54 percent of the total rural population of the United States. And a good portion of them make up the electorate of Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, the classic swing states. In such a situation, the key question is whether Biden can secure enough public support to gather enough voters, votes are not in question. His campaign is aware that this Catholic carries with him a great encouragement that can turn against him at any moment. Black America will turn to him largely because of Barack Obama, but many will not forget that as early as the 1970s he participated in the enactment of laws that had segregationist characteristics. There is also the question of age, at the age of 78 Biden would become the oldest president to enter the White House. And his regular gaffes that are no longer funny but suggest possible mental incoordination. Trump is calling for as many pre-election debates as possible, the Democratic camp is sticking to agreed rules aware that Biden could be a loser. This text was completed on Sunday. Biden had promised to announce the name of his vice president by the end of the week. It is not. Which is a clear signal that they continue to examine all options to make that decision a kryptonite against the current president. Regardless of the current situation, any American historian will say that the outcome of the presidential election is impossible to predict 80 days before the election. In Saturday's article in The Washington Post, the director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center, William Evanina, announced that Russia is already actively working to denigrate Biden because they want Trump in the White House. China and Iran are doing the same for Biden. So the American election is becoming global. Allan Lichtman , a history professor who developed a 13-key system that predicts a winner in a presidential election - and who was the only one to say in 2016 that Trump is winning - this time says Biden is winning. Tight, with only one key more, but wins.