Igor Rudan's Case: What is his suggestion for a path to totalitarianism and economic self-destruction?
The scientist Igor Rudanbegins to worry about the large-scale errors in the assessment of the COVID-19 crisis and the increasingly bizarre proposals for solutions. After writing in the first phase that COVID-19 is no more dangerous than the flu and saying on social media that "after 75 years" of growth, there is no need to worry too much about the economy because "there are solutions", he has now gone a step further in strange estimates. in a recent caption he said he was considering moving from a "mitigation" plan to an "utter suppression" that would lead to the eradication of the virus within Croatia. This "complete suppression" of Rudan would mean the extension of even more severe epidemiological measures with the aim of gradually creating a "corona-free" zone in which he would include Slovenia, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Montenegro. In that zone, Rudan would then normalize life, introduce a kind of 'passport', ie a certificate of infection, and would charge local hotels 'liberally' even to third-country guests, with the staff of those isolated hotels moving to hotels. Considering that the distinguished scientist does not understand at all how unrealistic his plan is and how severe the economic consequences of implementing such an idea would be, and it is possible that it only has a 5% impact on decision makers in Croatia, it is necessary to explain why his proposals are dangerous.
First, we can already expect that we are likely to see a double-digit decline in GDP in 2020, leading to a wave of bankruptcy in the private sector and dramatically hindering government refinancing in 2021. It is quite certain that in the second part of the year and in 2021 the situation on the capital market will be much more volatile than this year, and the magic sticks of fiscal and monetary intervention can have only a short-term intervention effect. Any extension of strict restrictive measures is therefore a serious blow to economic life, and the introduction of even more stringent measures would bring economic catastrophe with grave social consequences. The question now is what kind of economic, social and political problems will be brought about by the economic downturn initiated by COVID-19 infection and the accompanying epidemiological measures,
In one of his earlier texts on epidemiological measures, Rudan also showed the totality of totalitarian inclinations. In his 39th address, he proposed four measures, and in a fourth he called for "dilution" of the population divided into 3 or more sub-populations receiving certain days of the week, defined by the last digit of the house number to make it more difficult for the virus to spread. It should be noted that, justifying the fight against coronaviruses, Rudan was in his head taking the step of introducing measures that associate the wearing of yellow ribbons in World War II. Population segregation would, in Rudan's mind, be tied to GPS surveillance, linking it to Apple and Google, which, incidentally, have no such solution. So Rudan's ideas are not only dangerous economically, but they threaten to undermine the fundamental freedoms guaranteed by democracy.
The impression is that Rudan even tries to impose himself on the extravagance of the proposal in order to prove the superiority of his intellect, but he does not understand that it is difficult enough for us without such 'superintelligence' that throws the pistons under our feet with practical solutions.
Namely, the first evidence is emerging that not even loosening epidemiological measures will bring an easy and quick recovery.
Germany was among the first to open stores up to 800 square meters. There are no official statistics yet, but information gathered by Financial Times reporters-investigators through talks with shopkeepers says they are no less afraid of bankruptcy than their stores were closed at the behest of authorities. Their stores are still empty, German consumers have no motive for a massive return to stores. Consumption, it seems, will remain low at the start of the epidemic easing in Germany. The combined fear of further declining revenue and COVID-19 infecting it is a 'disease' that will be treated for months to come and the European economies will fall deeper. It is literally important to keep every cent of your business activity, and not fantasize about epidemiological superheroes. Berlin has seen a 40 percent drop in sales since the store closed. There are no more tourists and less people are moving. The Kiel Institute for World Economy, by data analysis, concluded that pedestrian traffic in Mannheim was at 56 percent over the period before the COVID-19 pandemic. In Munich, the epicenter of contagion in Germany, pedestrian traffic has dropped to 13 percent of what it used to be.
This data indicates that it is completely unclear whether large shopping centers will survive once they are opened.
Equally unclear is why scientists such as Rudan are pushing for economic survival with epidemiological 'complete repression', while everyone in the EU is devouring desperate plans for a gradual and prudent exit from epidemiology that prevents normalization of business activities.
It is at least clear that it is possible that Rudan does not understand how a small and open economy like Croatia cannot withstand isolation from the rest of the EU in order to create a corona-free zone, which, after all, cannot be maintained with any international travel
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