ELECTIVE BETTING
Nine political analysts for Jutarnja predict how the parties will fare in the elections
Almost everyone estimates that the relative winner of the election will be the Restart coalition, but it seems that we will have a right-wing government
elective bookmaker
Vesna Veselić
Who will win the July 5 parliamentary elections? SDP-led restart coalition. And who will form the new majority and the new Government? Well, let's say that the HDZ has an advantage because if Andrej Plenković makes a pact with Miroslav Škora and Most after the elections, Croatia will have a right-wing government for the third time in a row. Thus, in the roughest terms, we dare to interpret the results of a kind of election bookmaker Nedjeljni Jutarnji when we average all the figures that policy experts have entered in the table.
Although our "forecasters" are top political scientists, sociologists and media experts, who have published a sea of scientific papers and other publications during their rich careers, read their forecasts, our dear readers, just like that - as a forecast, a kind of bookmaker, and partly as a pastime, a game, in which they bravely exposed themselves by ungrateful predictions of election results that will, by all accounts, be one of the most uncertain so far. That is exactly how we asked them to join our request to predict the outcome of the elections. Namely, we did not ask them to substantiate their forecast with irrefutable scientific "evidence" and to explain in detail each figure they enter in the table.
Now that we’re clear with that, let’s start with our imperfect interpretation of the numbers in the table. Everyone except Dragan Bagić, who is, among other things, an expert in public opinion research, estimates that the relative winner of the elections will be the Restart Coalition and that he will win between 48 and 63 parliamentary seats. The average of all nine forecasts gives them 59.5 seats.
It is followed by HDZ with partners and an average of 53.5 seats and ranging from 43 to 61 seats in the future parliament. The Homeland Movement of Miroslav Škora and his coalition partners all predict a solid to excellent (Professor Gordana Vilović 28 terms) result. With an average of 16.5 parliamentary seats, Škoro and his team occupy a solid third place
Nema komentara:
Objavi komentar