PLENKOVIĆ AS MILAOVIĆ

Plenković as Milanović. The road to a recessionary bottom and a crisis by the end of the term Most of the indicators should reach pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022, which is not to be celebrated 8874051 Posted: September 28, 2020 7:14 pm Facebook Twitter Messenger E-mail From the monetary and financial top of the state, we again heard a set of positive news. The Governor of the Croatian National Bank Boris Vujčić encouraged the participants of the Leader's Day of Big Plans, who really needed every injection of optimism this year. Zdravko Maric , the government's chief financier, was colder after the adoption of the three-year budget projection, so it may have seemed more convincing, but they are both right. As far as Croatia is concerned, the news is not so bad. However, thanks to tourism (although there is still no doubt that our economy is too dependent on this sensitive branch in which we have never systematically bitten), GDP will fall not nine percent, as predicted by the IMF at the beginning of the pandemic, and domestic, always pessimistic, analysts they quickly raised that estimate to minus 12, rather than eight percent, which is still a significant drop, and next year we will not grow six, but five percent (because after a small drop we start from a higher point). Most of the indicators should reach the pre-pandemic level by the end of 2022, which is not to be celebrated if we know that we only recently caught 2009. This is an important step forward, with Schengen still unattainable, bringing us closer to the final stage of merging with the European Union. It is important, however, to remember Maric's last silent remark: "Global expectations for a speedy recovery under the V model have largely been abandoned. We expect a strong recovery over the next two years, but we must not allow the right arm of the V to turn into a horizontal one. " Of the 162 global businesses whose managers were interviewed by Oxford Economics analysts, 20 percent are convinced that the next financial crisis is coming in less than two years. Fear itself has consequences - optimism indices are lower than expected, and such a mood threatens to drag into a spiral of depression. Fear of the coming crisis is the biggest killer of consumption, but also of big ambitious plans. The financial crisis will not explode immediately, as banks are mostly healthier than in 2008. This time, the cause of the crisis will not be banking insatiability. Banks, however, will again be among the first branches of business where the consequences will be felt. “Banks are not the source of the crisis, but I cannot expect them to be left without scars,” the Financial Times quoted Hyun Song Shin, chief economist at the Bank for International Settlements, as saying . RELATED NEWS Zdravko Marić and Andrej Plenković CHECKPOINT At the time of the corona and old political models are dying CHECKPOINT Our European money or the conspiracy of the elite against the citizens His conclusion is not encouraging: "The phase of the immediate liquidity crisis is now giving way to the solvency crisis, and the banks will undoubtedly bear the greatest burden." What this means for the price of money everywhere, and inevitably in Croatia, we can only guess for now. Interest rates are still lower than ever, but the mailboxes of companies and citizens are already full of bank notifications about raising bank fees and lowering limits for framework loans. The crisis has arrived with a pandemic and is unlikely to stop until medicine stops the spread of the disease. The London Economist warns that the scale of the covid pandemic is greater than official figures show. This conclusion is not questionable because a significant part of those infected, but also those with a mild form of the disease, never reach a doctor, and then not even the state statistics. The problem is that all other numbers come from the realm of free estimates, which are usually as reliable as the recipe for a safe jackpot. It is certain that, even after medicine approaches the solution, the approach to safety will be uneven both globally and within individual countries. The real problem will come with the vaccine, which according to most estimates means no earlier than the middle of next year. Never before has the world met the need to vaccinate such a large part of the population as soon as possible. Some of the states will not be able to cope with such an organizational challenge on their own. When we considered future recovery scenarios this spring (it was that weird five-letter alphabet that started with an optimistic V and ended with a disastrous, irreversible I after slowed U, W, and L), the conclusion was that, depending on the behavior of the virus, recovery may be halted after a steep rise by a new wave of epidemics and a re-locking of the economy. After three unlocked months, the result is both better and worse than expected. Better because the decline is smaller than expected, and worse because the recovery if the pandemic intensifies and we see acceleration will stop before it starts, and society will move towards a new recession bottom, probably deeper than the 2010 we experienced. , and even sent the Government of Zoran Milanović. Such a "W" pattern, in addition to prolonging the crisis, would bring us the danger of a significant decline in business and consumer confidence in government recovery measures. A low level of confidence always brings reduced consumption and then, consequently, a drop in orders, bankruptcies and unemployment. Until medicine declares the end of the pandemic, it is therefore important to include conscience. Masks do not bite.